So it’s not a bold prediction, but there’s no denying that the Colorado Rockies have raced to a fast start, garnering the 2nd-most wins in the Majors (14) before their game tonight. They beat up on a slow-starting Milwaukee Brewers team, swept the lowly Padres, got swept by the Champs, swept the Padres AGAIN, swept the three games they had of the four scheduled with the Mets at home in the snow, and then took two out of three from the DBacks before seeing two out of three get taken from them by Atlanta, the hottest team in the Majors. Got all that? The standings right before their game tonight look like this in the NL West:
While their Strength of Schedule is 5th in the Majors, remember the Brewers were not the hot team they became, and nearly half of their wins have come from the Padres, and they got swept by the Giants. Credit should be given to the Rockies whom are winning the games they should be winning, and not only their hitting, but their pitching has helped more than I thought their pitching could, even after twelve games at home! Starters Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa have led the staff while the bullpen has accumulated tied for the highest fWAR of all thirty relief corps with Detroit led by setup man Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, and the walk-happy Rafael Betancourt. The rest of the Rockies are pitching like you’d imagine the Rockies pitching.
On the hitting side, Dexter Fowler has seven bombs, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are doing their part, and Michael Cuddyer plus Wilin Rosario are having nice starts to the year with the first four position players listed all having a wOBA above .400 and a wRC+ above 150. You get four players to do that, chances are good things will happen. We knew this team could hit, the question was could they pitch, and could they stay healthy.
The Rockies now have to put up as they begin to square off away from home in Arizona, Los Angeles against the Dodgers, come home for interleague action against the Rays, Yankees, and then go to St. Louis. With Chacin on the DL, I see their lack of pitching depth coming back to get them as they begin to face off against good pitching. The Rays and Dodgers are both a game under .500, and that’s as low as the records go for the upcoming Rockies opponents. While I’m sure the hitters that have started well will still contribute, I don’t think it’ll be enough to cover up for four starters that are more used to seeing runs get up against them than seeing a quality start registered to their names.
So I’m a non-believer, I’m sure Rockies fans happy with their team’s success are used to seeing those, and some of them are still mad over Keith Law’s prediction for them, but there’s always a few teams that start off hot then tail off, and I think that hot start is starting to come to an end for the Rockies, and will bow out from the top of the West by May 13th at the very latest.