Idea: Rank the best individual seasons of the 2012 MLB regular season (Spring Training, Minor Leagues, and Postseason are not included), while considering offensive and defensive facets of the game.
Consider: Using the individual metrics to measure individual performance; full avoidance of projecting results for shortened seasons, and past years performance to justify or dictate standings.
This is not: “Most Valuable” anything. Rather, this is “best,” like Baseball America does, so there is no confusion as to what I am ranking. It is also not a “this is a ranking of who I want in 2013, or wanted in any other year.”
This is: My opinion, and will be disagreed with by many.
80. Adrian Gonzalez (18 HR, 47 2B, .346 wOBA, 3.6 fWAR, 0.7 rWAR) – The centerpiece of the deal that sent him from Boston to LA, Gonzalez was below average (for him) last year, so the Dodgers are certainly hoping for the 2006-2011 versions of the 1B.
79. Carlos Beltran (32 HR, 13 SB, .355 wOBA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.6 rWAR) – Plays pretty well for a guy with a bad everything. Should he do something like this again next year, he will be well worth the money the Cardinals paid him.
78. Doug Fister (161.2 IP, 7.63 K/9, 4.13 tERA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Suffered a very unfortunate typo in his name, but hopefully he was not aware of that, and the former Seattle Mariner is showing he has plenty of value in Detroit’s rotation. Also glad he was not seriously hurt on that line drive off his head in the World Series.
77. Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, 18 SB, .363 wOBA, 3.7 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR) – Arizona’s resident Tim Lincecum-masher also nearly had a 20-20 season, and he has established himself to be a force to be reckoned with.
76. Jarrod Parker (181.1 IP, 6.95 K/9, 4.32 tERA, 3.7 fWAR, 3.8 rWAR) – Can’t wait to see that changeup in action again, but Parker needs to tune down the walks to further reach that projected ceiling of his.
75. Adam LaRoche (33 HR, 35 2B, .361 wOBA, 3.8 fWAR, 4.0 rWAR) – Must be nice to have a team with hitters that can just boom every which way. I still have nightmares about the series San Francisco had in Washington this past season.
74. Kyle Lohse (211.0 IP, 6.10 K/9, 4.20 tERA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.9 rWAR) – Still looking for a team at the moment I’m writing this, but it sure helps when your defense is behind you and you don’t walk guys, doesn’t it?
73. Nick Swisher (24 HR, 36 2B, .363 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 3.5 rWAR) – Really hope he helps Cleveland out, because I’m tired of seeing them be bad, same way I feel for the Royals.
72. Denard Span (38 2B, 17 SB, .325 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 4.8 rWAR) – May not have pop, but Washington traded for a good CF, which along with an Adam LaRoche signing, has set in motion some Michael Morse trade discussion amongst the people
71. Albert Pujols (30 HR, 50 2B, .360 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 4.6 rWAR) – Pretty remarkable numbers considering The Machine did very little in April, and only one big fly in the last month of the season.
70. Josh Willingham (35 HR, 30 2B, .380 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 2.9 rWAR) – His 3-year/$21MM deal sure seems like a steal now, doesn’t it? Especially if you put 1.0 WAR = ~$5MM.
69. Josh Johnson (191.1 IP, 7.76 K/9, 4.19 tERA, 3.8 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR) – Another new Blue Jay, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should be a pretty reliable starter, although maybe not the ace of the staff, especially if Dickey goes all 2010-2012 on everybody.
68. David Murphy (15 HR, 10 SB, .369 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Definitely an under-the-radar type season from Murphy, so there is good reason as to why he is projected to start in the OF for Texas in 2013.
67. Anibal Sanchez (195.2 IP, 7.68 K/9, 4.07 tERA, 3.8 fWAR, 1.2 rWAR) – I’d say Anibal’s audition for Free Agency went pretty well, and should make for plenty of pitcher wins in the coming years.
66. Brandon Phillips (18 HR, 15 SB, .325 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 3.5 rWAR) – I did not consider his flashy plays or his twitter account in his evaluation. Had I, he would’ve been ranked higher.
65. Alfonso Soriano (32 HR, 33 2B, .350 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 1.8 rWAR) – Soriano may not have wanted a trade to the Giants due to the climate, so I do wonder whom he’s waiting for in terms of a trade partner.
64. A.J. Ellis (20 HR, .373 OBP, .341 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – What will always bother me about this guy is not even on him, but on his manager for not putting him in a better spot to have that OBP being taken advantage of. At least the pitchers had someone to bunt over.
63. Matt Wieters (23 HR, 27 2B, .331 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Looks like he’s ready to bust into the next tier of catchers with that power that he’s showing off from his position.
62. David Freese (20 HR, 25 2B, .365 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.6 rWAR) – I’m probably the only one with this problem, but when I think “David Freese” I only think of him in the Postseason, not what he can do to you in the regular season. My fan-side showing, I guess.
61. Hiroki Kuroda (219.2 IP, 6.84 K/9, 4.15 tERA, 3.9 fWAR, 5.2 rWAR) – You will see no tears out of the NL West that Kuroda is once again locked into playing in the AL East in 2013.
MLB Draft Day was not always the big production it is now with it being streamed on MLB Network, online, and with the crazy amounts of analysis from big networks in addition to Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and the like. Something I know that has been covered by writers/bloggers here and there are articles in which they talk about what players your team could’ve had. Not every year is the same as some years for most teams you may have even more than one first round pick, or you can have drafts like the 2005 Giants did with nothing until the 4th round. Now, the biggest name from their draft that year? Why it would be no other than your favorite frisbee thrower, Sergio Romo, picked in the 28th round! Here’s some players you probably wouldn’t mind having on your roster that were picked after the 5th round of their respective drafts.
To make things a little more fun, what if we made this also a 25-man roster? I’ll put an asterisk next to the guys that wouldn’t have made the cut for the team I’m putting together. I’ll even provide a prospect for some of the positions to make it more 40-man-ish and these guys will be marked with a double-asterisk
A.J. Ellis (Dodgers; Drafted in 2003 in the 18th round by the Dodgers) — Ellis has been an OBP machine for the Dodgers whether he’s been batting 2nd where he should be, or 8th in the lineup, because he’s a catcher or something.
Mike Napoli (Rangers; Drafted in 2000 in the 17th round by the Angels) — Remember when the Angels traded Napoli to the Blue Jays and then the Blue Jays traded him to the Rangers where he would hit 30 dingers for them? Good times.
**Ryan Lavarnway (Red Sox; Drafted in 2008 in the 6th round by the Red Sox) — Just debuted on the 18th of August!
Albert Pujols (Angels; Drafted in 1999 in the 13th round by the Cardinals) — Lifetime 472 HR in his Age 32 season. Has never had a season with less than 32 HR (27 this year).
Mark Trumbo (Angels; Drafted in 2004 in the 18th round by the Angels) — Only 26, the kid has posted back-to-back 29 HR seasons.
**Jonathan Singleton (Astros; Drafted in 2009 in the 8th round by the Phillies) — Has an ETA of 2013 per MLB.com and he’s from my part of town in Long Beach as well.
Ian Kinsler (Rangers; Drafted in 2003 in the 17th round by the Rangers) — Has been a 30/30 guy in 2009 and 2011.
Dan Uggla (Braves; Drafted in 2001 in the 11th round by the Diamondbacks) — biceps bigger than my head; Had five straight 30-HR seasons coming into 2012.
**Scooter Gennett (Brewers; Drafted in 2009 in the 16th round by the Brewers) — how can you not love that name? ETA 2013.
Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays; Drafted in 2000 in the 9th round by the Rangers) — Has he discovered something new in Toronto a la JoeyBats? 31 HR in his age 29 season after only two-20+ HR seasons in 2010 (21) and 2008 (26).
**Nick Delmonico (Orioles; Drafted in 2011 in the 6th round by the Orioles) — Not in any Top 100s that I’ve seen. ETA 2015.
Ben Zobrist (Rays; Drafted in 2004 in the 6th round by the Astros) — Super utility guy that gives you double digit bombs and double digit stolen bags.
**Tyler Saladino (White Sox; Drafted for the second time in two years in 2010, drafted in the 7th round by the White Sox in ’10) — The SS prospect after the 2nd round is difficult to find, and Saladino probably isn’t even a prospect at all. I mean, he is in the White Sox’s system.
Matt Kemp — (Dodgers; Drafted in 2003 in the 6th round by the Dodgers) — A legitimate 40/40 threat when healthy
Jose Bautista (Blue Jays; Drafted in 2000 in the 20th round by the Pirates) — On his way to three straight 30-HR seasons
Josh Willingham (Twins; Drafted in 2000 in the 17th round by the Marlins) — Six 20-HR seasons, with his first 30-HR season this year
Austin Jackson (Tigers; Drafted in 2005 in the 8th round by the Yankees) — .308/.392/.897 line in 2012
Corey Hart (Brewers; Drafted in 2000 in the 11th round by the Brewers) — Five 20-HR seasons
*Dexter Fowler (Rockies; Drafted in 2004 in the 14th round by the Rockies) — Would be a great bench guy amongst these guys listed with his speed.
**Tyler Austin (Yankees; Drafted in 2010 in the 13th round by the Yankees) — An ETA of 2015 for the kid that’s chillin’ in High-A at the moment.
Jake Peavy (White Sox; Drafted in 1999 in the 15th round by the Padres) — finally looking to pitch a season with more than 30 starts since 2007 with the Padres
Mat Latos (Reds; Drafted in 2006 in the 11th round by the Padres) — although he really was a villain with San Diego, Latos will give you what you expect out of a pitcher in the 2 or 3 spot.
Tim Hudson (Braves; Drafted in 1997 in the 6th round by the A’s) — In his 14 seasons of pitching (and 2009 really shouldn’t count because he only had 7 starts), only one season (2006) has he had an ERA+ under 110
James Shields (Rays; Drafted in 2000 in the 16th round by the Devil Rays) — A great season last year, Shields is on his way to another 200+ IP campaign although he is susceptible to the long ball
Matt Moore (Rays; Drafted in 2007 in the 8th round by the Devil Rays) — Still a baby, Matt Moore’s potential is more than enough to “forgive” the season he’s having right now.
*James McDonald (Pirates; Drafted in 2002 in the 11th round by the Dodgers) — A product of my old workplace at Poly HS in Long Beach, James has been given his chance to shine in Pittsburgh and was considered one of the ASG snubs this year.
*Chris Capuano (Dodgers; Drafted in 1999 in the 8th round by the Diamondbacks) — A 4th/5th SP type throughout his career that’s pitching like a 2 or 3 and really helping the Dodgers in their pennant chase this year
**Dellin Betances (Yankees; Drafted in 2006 in the 8th round by the Yankees) — an ETA of 2012 for the kid that’s been geting lit up in his stops in the International and Eastern Leagues.
**Brad Peacock (A’s; Drafted in 2006 in the 41st round by the Nationals) — I just wanted to include a 41st rounder who is considered a legitimate prospcet. Seriously, how cool is that.
Tyler Clippard (Nationals; Drafted in 2003 in the 9th round by the Yankees) — Tyler has been blowing the competition away in the last four years, posting a double-digit K/9 and when Storen went down with an injury, Clippard was more than ready to pick up the slack.
David Robertson (Yankees; Drafted in 2006 in the 17th round by the Yankees) — The original heir to the throne of Mariano Rivera, Robertson, like Clippard is going double-digit K/9 for five-years running now including a crazy 399 ERA+ in 2011.
Greg Holland (Royals; Drafted in 2007 in the 10th round by the Royals) — With Joakim Soria down, and Jonathan Broxton finally being shipped out, Greg Holland gets to be put in the spotlight with his power of missing bats as he looks to post a career-high in strikeouts in 2012.
Sergio Romo (Giants; Drafted in 2005 in the 28th round by the Giants) — A known injury risk, Romo still can dominate you with the spin he puts on that frisbee slider of his has been baffling hitters for years
Vinnie Pestano (Indians; Drafted in 2006 in the 20th round by the Indians) — A Cal State Fullerton product (Gary Brown fans know that school well), Pestano has climbed up the ladder but is still what I feel to be a relative unknown because he plays for Cleveland. Currently a set-up man, he is to be taken seriously even if you haven’t heard of him.
Jason Motte (Cardinals; Drafted in 2003 in the 19th round by the Cardinals) — Motte is well known for his 2012 performance but he’s been doing well since 2010 really, and is what I’d think to be a household name in St. Louis.
Sean Marshall (Reds; Drafted in 2003 in the 6th round by the Cubs) — I wonder if Theo would’ve traded Marshall since this guy has been pretty darn good as a reliever when he started doing that full-time in 2010.
*Luke Gregerson (Padres; Drafted in 2006 in the 28th round by the Cardinals) — If Padres fans read my stuff, they’d hate my decision to leave him off my roster, and I understand their gripe: solid ERA+ especially this year, but who do I kick out for him?
*Joe Nathan (Rangers; Drafted in 1995 in the 6th round by the Giants) — Giants fans know the name well, and I won’t make them revisit any trades associated with him, but when healthy, really outside of 2011, he’s done some good work making hitters miss, including a 7 K/BB this year.
**Brody Colvin (Phillies; Drafted in 2009 in the 7th round by the Phillies) — An ETA 2014 and I know you’re not supposed to judge minor leaguers by their stats, but holy crap is this SP getting destroyed right now. A number of things could be going on here, but I put him in the bullpen, just because I can.
Maybe Brian Wilson (24th round in 2003) can be on my 60-Day DL. Sorry if I missed anybody, I don’t hate your team, this was a tough list to compile in certain positions!
If you’re like my finacee, the biggest problem you have with the Angels is that they have the city name “Los Angeles” in front of their name when they are clearly in Orange County and the only thing Los Angeles-y about them is that they love the wave, and they’re surrounded by freeways. Their fans drench the seats in red better than the Doyers do in blue, which is kind of cool, and they got a rock in LCF, which I would probably understand if I’d just taken the ballpark tour. Just because this team can never pass the Rangers, don’t think they’re no good, because they are certainly capable.
Monday, June 18th: RHP Matt Cain vs. RHP Jerome Williams (yes, that Jerome Williams)
One sentence preview: The Angels are about to get Matt Cain’d as many focus on the consecutive batters retired streak of Cain’s.
Tuesday, June 19th: LHP Barry Zito vs. LHP C.J. Wilson
One sentence preview: This may be the pitching mismatch of the series, and I doubt there will be a blister on C.J.’s finger to save the Giants from facing him.
Wednesday, June 20th: RHP Ryan Vogelsong vs. **RHP Jared Weaver
One sentence preview: I’ll be at this game, guys, so don’t worry about it,no matter who the Angels decide to put out there.
The Angels’ Bullpen Guide
Things may be going well for the Giants (or we’re getting blown out) if you see: Hisanori Takahashi, David Pauley, or David Carpenter
Runs might be tougher to come by against: Jason Isringhausen, LaTroy Hawkins, Jordan Walden, Scott Downs, Ernesto Frieri (former Padre)
Small Sample Sizes (SSS) and the 2012 Season for the Bats
While Mike Trout (.396 wOBA, 6 HR, 16 SB, 13.3 wRAA) or some “Pujols” guy (.320 wOBA, 10 HR) you’ve heard of may be the biggest names on the offensive side of the halo, you’d be silly to overlook the strong Mark Trumbo (.418 wOBA, 15 HR, 19.2 wRAA) who is warranting some serious All Star consideration. Erick Aybar hasn’t been doing so bad the past 7 days (.457 wOBA) but with a.467 BABIP and a 7.1 LD% rate, don’t be surprised if Mr. New Contract cools off. Alberto Callaspo (.372 wOBA L7) hasn’t been doing so bad himself lately, but him and Aybar have .286 and .264 wOBA, respectively, so Alberto may just be having one of those times right now.
How’s this for your SSS: in the last 7 games, your 3 highest wOBA on the Giants belong to the BBB: Brandon Belt (.572 L7, .335 overall), Brandon Crawford (.457, .261), and Buster Posey (.434, .357). Melky (35.3%), Pablo (35%), and Belt (35.3%) are all scorching the ball with line drives in their last seven. On the opposite side of things, Angel Pagan hasn’t been producing too much lately (.192 wOBA, .231 BABIP, -2.1 wRAA, 14 wRC+) in his last 7 but maybe some warmer weather will change things up for Mr. Pagan.
Monday: Giants win (Matt Cain. Any questions?)
Tuesday: Angels win (Although it’d be great if C.J. Wilson could regress to Barry Zito levels for a game)
Wednesday: Giants win in extra innings (Los Angeles and Orange Counties figuring out this Ryan Vogelsong guy is pretty good, while San Francisco gets to see for themselves how good Jared Weaver is)
I know I never predict the Giants lose a series, but with the pitching they throw out there, why should I expect them to lose one? Enjoy the games, ladies and gents!
Remember when a year ago the running joke started with “I’m going to take my talents to Miami” or something along that line? Well, it’s coming back. The former Florida, now Miami Marlins have signed Heath Bell to an unreasonable 3 year, $27 million contract (breaking the unwritten rule of you should never sign a reliever to 3+ years and how about not paying for saves) and now tonight have announced a 6 year, $102MM contract with a guaranteed $4MM buyout option for the 7th year. And they’re not done yet. Lordie, they are not done yet because now we are hearing garbage like this:
And no one’s really saying otherwise, but there are people talking trash about the Marlins already. From:
To things like:
Loria being the owner of the Marlins. Now I’ve never owned a baseball team, nor will I probably ever at the Major League level at least. But life lessons can still be applied here. How about that lesson of “moderation?” “Too much of one thing isn’t a good thing” type of cliche where in this case the “one thing” is spending yourself blind. We’ve seen the Marlins go through firesales after winning 2 World Championships and now that they’re opening a new stadium with mostly public funds and probably also through the miracle that is revenue sharing, they have the cap space to go absolutely nuts this winter.
With Reyes now inked, they probably have around $60MM committed to 2012, before their arbitration eligibles. This leaves them room to still go for Albert and someone like Mark Buehrle and be around the $100MM mark which is a good competitive spot to be. Only problem is once the kids that are getting paid next to nothing (Stanton, LoMo, maybe even Bonafacio) start to grow older, so will their need for a raise. Even athletes like Josh Johnson will command more. What will Miami do then? Miami has now bought high on 2 guys, looking to go on 4. This could be very, very bad for them later and I have this feeling it will be. They’re going to be the new New York Mets, hard to say if they’ll be worse though. That’s for time to tell.
The Marlins aren’t going to change their game plan of an all-out attack this winter. They will be the big winners of the off-season with the biggest additions going into their newest stadium. I guess if there is one time to push the chips in for Miami it’s now, but they sure are taking a fattie gamble on their future while they’re at it. This is more than a publicity stunt, people. It’s happening, but don’t you worry: The Miami Marlins will get their comeuppance for this. Especially if they put together a farm-package to get Gio Gonzalez of the A’s. Short-term stuff because in the end, Florida hasn’t proven its worth as a baseball market and building a champion won’t happen overnight (right, Miami NBA fans?).
Do you remember who was supposed to play in the 2010 World Series? Of course you do: Yankees and Phillies. Who else would it be? Instead, two boring mystery teams that most people have never seen win a World Series in the Giants, and play with Nolan Ryan in the stands in the Texas Rangers, came together to fight it out in 5 games ultimately with the good guys winning. No hand gestures necessary.
Then came the 2011 Free Agency period. Cliff Lee was going to the Yankees. No, the Rangers. No, the Yankees. Oh wait there’s a mystery team?!?!? Who could it be? Giants? No, they need a bat. Dodgers? Ha, that’s funny. The Dodgers don’t care about baseball! Silly. Ok, the whole “mystery” thing was made up, everyone get back to work. Yankees, Rangers, rinse and repeat. Cliff Lee signs with the Phillies. In February when camp was about to break, the Phillies had won Free Agency 2011.
Who was picked to go to the 2011 World Series? You probably remember. Fried chicken and beer vs. Subway. The ultimate American showdown of American eating versus Americans thinking they’re eating healthy. It would’ve brought crazy ratings. Basketball fans nationwide might have cared about baseball instead of whining about their lame, boring 82 game sport. Real athletes play 162 games of 9 innings or something like that. Back to the point, we have the Rangers and the Cardinals now. The Rangers don’t surprise anyone, but the Cardinals are a shocker. Mystery team! I know I didn’t pick them for any postseason spot and any postseason series. Can you imagine if they pitched the NLDS like they did the NLCS? It’d be Phillies-Red Sox by some miracle of osmosis (why do people always go to osmosis?).
The real reason I wrote this was to talk about Free Agency 2012. We have many big names like CC Sabathia (who is big), CJ Wilson (half big), Albert Pujols (machine big) and Prince Fielder (tofu big). How many of these guys will get lasso’d in by a “mystery team” this winter? My guess: two. Here’s who I think gets who:
CC Sabathia – Chicago Cubs (CC goes to CC. It was meant to be.)
CJ Wilson – Yankees (Who else would overpay for him?)
Albert Pujols – Cardinals (What, you expect Lance Berkman to play first?)
Prince Fielder — San Franci… not. Baltimore Orioles. (Unless you think they want to have more years of sub-par Derrek Lee-ness. How will they compete for 4th without Prince?)
I’ll be wrong with about… four of these predictions. Don’t worry. Can’t wait for the Free Agency period to begin though.