Teams have until the fifth day after the World Series at 5PM EST to extend a $14.1MM qualifying offer to their prospective free agents. Should they do that, any team that isn’t the club that offered the $14.1MM has to surrender its 1st round pick unless that team is among the teams with the lowest ten records from 2013. If the signing team is from that group, they will surrender their second round draft pick. A glimpse into which teams those are can be read about here. Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly held a chat recently that was chronicled by MLB Trade Rumors that provides some insight into the strategies of the Giants this winter. The bullet point that may be most relevant to this post would be:
“The Giants are very unlikely to surrender their first round (14th overall) draft pick to sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer. This could have a major impact on the chances of the team pursuing Bronson Arroyo, who could be extended a qualifying offer by the Reds. Baggarly feels that Arroyo and Dan Haren are the free agent pitchers who are most likely to be San Francisco targets.”
You can also look at this MLBTR-created custom Fangraphs leaderboard of Starting Pitchers to say things like, “Wait, Dan Haren‘s season wasn’t as awful as I thought it was.” Here are pitchers that I think will be getting that qualifying offer from their 2013 teams (listed in no particular order):
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Ricky Nolasco
- Ervin Santana
- Bronson Arroyo (least confident about this one)
Matt Garza(Ineligible for qualifying offer due to being traded during the 2013 season)
My goodness, is that it? So, those are the pitchers, if signed, the Giants would give up a draft pick for. If you had a chance for any of them, would you go for it? Hiroki Kuroda seems to operate on one-year deals, so if you’re going to give up a draft pick, that doesn’t really make sense for the Giants as 2014 does not appear to be one of those emphasized “all in” years. Ervin Santana scares me, and he’s also going to be 31. No thanks (that’s probably just me, though). Garza is intriguing, but his comments earlier this year to another player’s wife have turned me off to him. I don’t want that kind of garbage on a team I support. Giving up a first round draft pick for a #4 starter in Ricky Nolasco doesn’t leave a good taste in my mouth, not that the Giants have been stellar with their first overall pick post-Zack Wheeler, but that’s not fair to Christian Arroyo. Keeping it Arroyo, Bronson is 37, and if he gets a QO, I would like the Giants to stay away, but if he doesn’t (which he very well might not), that could be a sort of interesting pursuit.
That leaves one guy that I haven’t mentioned and that’s Ubaldo, the former Rocky. Unpredictable like a Tim Lincecum, maybe, but five 3.0+ fWAR seasons since 2008 make him pretty likable from a contract signing standpoint. He’ll be thirty in January, and three to four years of goodish Ubaldo would give Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner some awesome support (not to mention the bullpen), and heck if Tim Lincecum shows up, this could be a rockin’ party. Would really like him to get that walk rate down, though. His velocity isn’t the same as it used to be, but whose is as you leave your twenties?
Sort of a side note, CBS’ baseball journalists have given their predictions on where they think certain somebodies will land, and interestingly enough, the Giants are mentioned twice. I found them interesting, but I don’t put a lot of stock into the ones that say the Giants will sign those pitchers.
So there you have it, that’s my opinion on the Giants pursuing the specifically named pitchers that might receive qualifying offers. I would much rather them pursue pitchers not bound by the QO, but if they can get a good deal — and especially with Ubaldo, I will of course be all for it.
Idea: Rank the best individual seasons of the 2012 MLB regular season (Spring Training, Minor Leagues, and Postseason are not included), while considering offensive and defensive facets of the game.
Consider: Using the individual metrics to measure individual performance; full avoidance of projecting results for shortened seasons, and past years performance to justify or dictate standings.
This is not: “Most Valuable” anything. Rather, this is “best,” like Baseball America does, so there is no confusion as to what I am ranking. It is also not a “this is a ranking of who I want in 2013, or wanted in any other year.”
This is: My opinion, and will be disagreed with by many.
80. Adrian Gonzalez (18 HR, 47 2B, .346 wOBA, 3.6 fWAR, 0.7 rWAR) – The centerpiece of the deal that sent him from Boston to LA, Gonzalez was below average (for him) last year, so the Dodgers are certainly hoping for the 2006-2011 versions of the 1B.
79. Carlos Beltran (32 HR, 13 SB, .355 wOBA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.6 rWAR) – Plays pretty well for a guy with a bad everything. Should he do something like this again next year, he will be well worth the money the Cardinals paid him.
78. Doug Fister (161.2 IP, 7.63 K/9, 4.13 tERA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Suffered a very unfortunate typo in his name, but hopefully he was not aware of that, and the former Seattle Mariner is showing he has plenty of value in Detroit’s rotation. Also glad he was not seriously hurt on that line drive off his head in the World Series.
77. Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, 18 SB, .363 wOBA, 3.7 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR) – Arizona’s resident Tim Lincecum-masher also nearly had a 20-20 season, and he has established himself to be a force to be reckoned with.
76. Jarrod Parker (181.1 IP, 6.95 K/9, 4.32 tERA, 3.7 fWAR, 3.8 rWAR) – Can’t wait to see that changeup in action again, but Parker needs to tune down the walks to further reach that projected ceiling of his.
75. Adam LaRoche (33 HR, 35 2B, .361 wOBA, 3.8 fWAR, 4.0 rWAR) – Must be nice to have a team with hitters that can just boom every which way. I still have nightmares about the series San Francisco had in Washington this past season.
74. Kyle Lohse (211.0 IP, 6.10 K/9, 4.20 tERA, 3.6 fWAR, 3.9 rWAR) – Still looking for a team at the moment I’m writing this, but it sure helps when your defense is behind you and you don’t walk guys, doesn’t it?
73. Nick Swisher (24 HR, 36 2B, .363 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 3.5 rWAR) – Really hope he helps Cleveland out, because I’m tired of seeing them be bad, same way I feel for the Royals.
72. Denard Span (38 2B, 17 SB, .325 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 4.8 rWAR) – May not have pop, but Washington traded for a good CF, which along with an Adam LaRoche signing, has set in motion some Michael Morse trade discussion amongst the people
71. Albert Pujols (30 HR, 50 2B, .360 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 4.6 rWAR) – Pretty remarkable numbers considering The Machine did very little in April, and only one big fly in the last month of the season.
70. Josh Willingham (35 HR, 30 2B, .380 wOBA, 3.9 fWAR, 2.9 rWAR) – His 3-year/$21MM deal sure seems like a steal now, doesn’t it? Especially if you put 1.0 WAR = ~$5MM.
69. Josh Johnson (191.1 IP, 7.76 K/9, 4.19 tERA, 3.8 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR) – Another new Blue Jay, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should be a pretty reliable starter, although maybe not the ace of the staff, especially if Dickey goes all 2010-2012 on everybody.
68. David Murphy (15 HR, 10 SB, .369 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Definitely an under-the-radar type season from Murphy, so there is good reason as to why he is projected to start in the OF for Texas in 2013.
67. Anibal Sanchez (195.2 IP, 7.68 K/9, 4.07 tERA, 3.8 fWAR, 1.2 rWAR) – I’d say Anibal’s audition for Free Agency went pretty well, and should make for plenty of pitcher wins in the coming years.
66. Brandon Phillips (18 HR, 15 SB, .325 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 3.5 rWAR) – I did not consider his flashy plays or his twitter account in his evaluation. Had I, he would’ve been ranked higher.
65. Alfonso Soriano (32 HR, 33 2B, .350 wOBA, 4.0 fWAR, 1.8 rWAR) – Soriano may not have wanted a trade to the Giants due to the climate, so I do wonder whom he’s waiting for in terms of a trade partner.
64. A.J. Ellis (20 HR, .373 OBP, .341 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – What will always bother me about this guy is not even on him, but on his manager for not putting him in a better spot to have that OBP being taken advantage of. At least the pitchers had someone to bunt over.
63. Matt Wieters (23 HR, 27 2B, .331 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Looks like he’s ready to bust into the next tier of catchers with that power that he’s showing off from his position.
62. David Freese (20 HR, 25 2B, .365 wOBA, 4.1 fWAR, 3.6 rWAR) – I’m probably the only one with this problem, but when I think “David Freese” I only think of him in the Postseason, not what he can do to you in the regular season. My fan-side showing, I guess.
61. Hiroki Kuroda (219.2 IP, 6.84 K/9, 4.15 tERA, 3.9 fWAR, 5.2 rWAR) – You will see no tears out of the NL West that Kuroda is once again locked into playing in the AL East in 2013.