Earlier I wrote about how you could validate voting for each Giant on the MLB All Star Ballot, now it’s probably an appropriate time to list my actual All Stars. Since voting doesn’t close until the 4th of July, there’s going to be plenty of room for hot streaks, and hot piles of slumps. As with the online ballot itself, I’ll give you my players for each position, and we’ll leave it at that for now.
1B — Chris Davis (14 HR, .420 OBP, .458 wOBA, 190 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
SS — Jhonny Peralta (4 HR, .379 OBP, .364 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR)
OF — Mike Trout (9 HR, 9 SB, .400 wOBA, 157 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR)
OF — Jose Bautista (11 HR, .408 wOBA, 158 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
DH — David Ortiz (7 HR, .397 OBP, .429 wOBA, 168 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR)
C — Buster Posey (6 HR, .395 OBP, .385 wOBA, 152 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR)
OF — Carlos Gonzalez (11 HR, 8 SB, .390 OBP, .413 wOBA, 154 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR)
OF — Justin Upton (14 HR, .387 OBP, .410 wOBA, 165 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Feel free to put your ballot or changes in the comments because I can see how you might like player B over player A. Short season so far, lots of time left before I have to decide who I’m voting in 35 times.
Idea: Rank the best individual seasons of the 2012 MLB regular season (Spring Training, Minor Leagues, and Postseason are not included), while considering offensive and defensive facets of the game.
Consider: Using the individual metrics to measure individual performance; full avoidance of projecting results for shortened seasons, and past years performance to justify or dictate standings.
This is not: “Most Valuable” anything. Rather, this is “best,” like Baseball America does, so there is no confusion as to what I am ranking. It is also not a “this is a ranking of who I want in 2013, or wanted in any other year.”
This is: My opinion, and will be disagreed with by many.
40. Jimmy Rollins (23 HR, 30 SB, .322 wOBA, 4.9 fWAR, 2.3 rWAR) – You’ve got the picture now that I love HR and SB when put up in big bunches, and J-Roll, though 33 already, still’s puttin’ out.
39. Miguel Montero (15 HR, 25 2B, .364 wOBA, 5.0 fWAR, 3.7 rWAR) – Wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona fans feel MM is underappreciated. Definitely not talked about as much when we talk about “good catchers.”
38. Chris Sale (192.0 IP, 9 K/9, 4.06 tERA, 4.9 fWAR, 4.2 rWAR) – Turning 24 at the end of March, some scouts worry about this guy’s delivery, but hopefully Sale will continue to produce and not get injured.
37. Prince Fielder (30 HR, 33 2B, .398 wOBA, 4.9 fWAR, 4.4 rWAR) – Yea, defense kills him also, but that offense is just so hot, it’s no wonder he’s locked up through 2020.
36. Bryce Harper (22 HR, 18 SB, .352 wOBA, 4.9 fWAR, 5.0 rWAR) – Kid turned 20 in October. Really tried to not use his age to rank, but I might be guilty of that here.
35. Yu Darvish (191.1 IP, 10.4 K/9, 4.02 tERA, 5.1 fWAR, 4.0 rWAR) – Not a bad campaign for the “rookie” out of Sendai, and this is probably the guy I wish I would have watched more of. Maybe this year I’ll do that.
34. Joe Mauer (10 HR, 31 2B, .376 wOBA, 5.0 fWAR, 4.1 rWAR) – Just hoping Head & Shoulders is back in the game and ready to mash, especially with that monster contract of his.
33. Matt Holliday (27 HR, 36 2B, .378 wOBA, 5.1 fWAR, 3.9 rWAR) – Who’d have thunk that Holliday would be higher on this list than old buddy Pujols in 2013? Certainly not me.
32. Stephen Strasburg (159.1 IP, 11.13 K/9, 3.34 tERA, 4.3 fWAR, 2.7 rWAR) – Ranking SS was very tough because it’s not his fault the Nats shut him down, and I tried not to extrapolate what he was going to do and just take what he did and rank that. Could be too high, considering most everyone else got through the full season. Maybe it’s just right.
31. Carlos Ruiz (16 HR, 32 2B, .398 wOBA, 5.5 fWAR, 4.4 rWAR) – For how long he was using a substance to help him focus is unknown to me, and maybe it was helping him all year, but that’s not something I feel comfortable speculating on.
30. Torii Hunter (16 HR, 24 2B, .356 wOBA, 5.3 fWAR, 5.5 rWAR) – I do feel kind of bad for him with how things ended in Anaheim, but I think he’ll be happy in Detroit.
29. Austin Jackson (16 HR, 10 3B, .371 wOBA, 5.5 fWAR, 5.2 rWAR) – Someone said to me in the midst of the World Series the Tigers only had two guys in their lineup to fear. Austin Jackson then started his Rodney Dangerfield act, pointing to his regular season numbers.
28. Ian Desmond (25 HR, 21 SB, .362 wOBA, 5.4 fWAR, 3.2 rWAR) – Really difficult to decide between him, Jackson, and Hunter, but the 20-20 thing is just too sexy.
27. Giancarlo Stanton (37 HR, 30 2B, .405 wOBA, 5.8 fWAR, 5.4 rWAR) – He will enter his age 23 season in 2013, and he did all that in 501 plate appearances. Scary to think that he could get stronger.
26. Martin Prado (10 HR, 17 SB, .345 wOBA, 5.9 fWAR, 5.4 rWAR) – Often overlooked because he doesn’t clear the fence more often, Prado is a solid utility player that hasn’t quite seen his payday yet, but hopefully he will get his.
25. Alex Gordon (14 HR, 51 2B, .357 wOBA, 5.9 fWAR, 6.2 rWAR) – I could see people having a beef with me ranking Gordon too low, but if he gets stronger, those doubles might be going down and turning into dingers.
24. Zack Greinke (212.1 IP, 8.48 K/9, 3.58 tERA, 5.1 fWAR, 3.3 rWAR) – The lefty has a new home in LA, but made due with the Milwaukee and other “LA” team he worked for in 2012
23. Ben Zobrist (20 HR, 14 SB, .365 wOBA, 5.9 fWAR, 5.5 rWAR) – Another year of Ben playing multiple positions, and he still churns out the numbers that make him a solid attribute to the club. Good thing they have two team options on him for 2014 and 2015.
22. Joey Votto (44 2B, 19.80% BB%, .438 wOBA, 5.9 fWAR, 5.6 rWAR) – Even if he wasn’t 100%, he still ended up being a big contributor to the NL Central Champs.
21. Gio Gonzalez (199.1 IP, 9.35 K/9, 3.34 tERA, 5.4 fWAR, 4.5 rWAR) – Homey needs to bring that walk rate down, but to have this guy and him not be the #1 in your staff is pretty telling of what the Nationals have.
So often it is that when one person begins to discuss something, others follow. Chris Quick of Bay City Ball wrote up a piece on paying Buster Posey and it’s a good read, so you should check it out if you haven’t already. Can I do a better job of predicting a Posey contract? Probably not, but predicting long-term contracts are a fun off-season past time, like rosterbation. It should be noted though, that just as much as we might want Posey to get a contract to buy out his arbitration years, we could be seeing something of a repeat of a Tim Lincecum situation where his first two arbitration years get bought out (at that time for a 2 year/$23MM deal), and then another two year deal is made later. Now that I put that to paper, I actually believe that if it’s all coming down to the player getting paid, unless the Giants bring up some outstanding money, this is what will happen. Just in case you weren’t sure, these are the projected arbitration numbers for the Giants and their players, and much like Jim Bowden and his FA predictions, MLBTR is known to be pretty close to their projected figures:
$5.9MM in year one of arbitration, so you can definitely put down the pipe dream of getting a Salvador Perez” href=”http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/2/28/2829816/salvador-perez-contract-breakdown” target=”_blank”>Salvador Perez-type deal, because if they wanted that, they should’ve tried for it the moment Posey came up. Gosh, that’s a beautiful contract. Looks like the type I would sign my “A-potential” prospects to in MLB the Show 12, except it’d be for 10 years and less than $10MM, assuming they’re age 22 or younger. Anyway, you’re not getting Posey for cheap, and even if he switches to 1B, he’s still going to cost eight figures through his age 34 season at the very least.
There are two catchers in the 21st century who have put up an fWAR (Fangraphs version) and an rWAR (Baseball-Reference’s version) over 7.0 in a season. They are Buster Posey and Head and Shoulders’ Joe Mauer. Joe’s contract (seriously, what’s with the cover picture) is paying him $23MM/year over 8 seasons, so what makes you think Posey won’t want/get more? Compare the accolades on Baseball Reference all you want, two World Series rings in three seasons, with both of those rings coming in healthy Buster Posey seasons only makes his agents salivate at the thought of the green the kid from Leesburg, GA will make them.
If you want to discuss the Fangraphs value stuff, Posey was valued at $36MM this year. Mauer was valued at $35.6MM before he signed the Michael Jordan deal. Figure that front offices have their own stats to value metrics, and I have no idea how close they are to Fangraphs, but I will bet that they both said that Mauer and Posey had awesome seasons in 2009, and 2012, respectively. With everything in mind now, it’s time for predictions. I’m going to make them for every scenario I think could happen (each scenario assumes they don’t go to arbitration hearings): 1) the one-year deal, 2) the two-year deal, 3) the buying-out-of-arbitration-four-year deal, 4) the get a FA year for free* four-year deal with option
1) The one-year deal: Giants sign Buster Posey for $6.4MM. Why: The Giants signed Buster Posey for $6.2MM out of the draft, with two extra $100K in there for the two WS rings he’s had while on the team. I’d think that I’m stupid for playing with numbers, but seeing the way they played with the numbers a little with Timmy, I think it’s possible.
2) The two-year deal: $20MM, paying him $7MM in 2013, $13MM in 2014. Why: pay him a little more than he’s asking for in ’13, give him his due raise in ’14. If he’s healthy, you’re still likely getting your money’s worth.
3) The buy-out-four-year deal: $55MM, the payout being something like $6.5MM in ’13, $12MM in ’14, $16.5MM in ’15, $20MM in ’16. You’re giving him a higher AAV than Mauer, and I understand not higher than Lincecum, but he would approach that territory in option two after his first two-year deal. This deal may be on the optimistic side.
4) The get a FA year for free* deal: $80MM, the same deal as the four-year, with the vesting option being for $25MM. Why: With money flowing in to the organizations as they are, this money is the type you will see handed out to the superstars of the game, unless you’re Mike Trout, then you’ll probably get $30MM.
Those are the four ways I could see it being played out, and if anything, I bet on option number two happening. There’s just so much money to be had for Posey, I’m not sure why he’d go for options 3 or 4, but then again we saw with Lincecum that leaving money on the table might not always be the best idea.